Lots of people saying “it’ll be worse.” What they’re actually saying is that they want it to be worse. But why would it be? There’s nothing stopping us from just carrying on using existing models, if new ones end up not being better for whatever reason.

And even if there are no new models, we’re still in the early days of developing applications for the models that we already have. Ironically, I think a lot of chip makers have been holding off on making specialized designs to handle AI because it’s still changing so much - if models stopped evolving there’d be a surge of chips coming out that are specifically tailored to running those latest-and-greatest models that we’re now stuck with.

Anyway. I personally think it’s going to continue improving. But five years is a long time out, so I don’t have any solid predictions on how much it will improve by then. I expect even with conservative developments we’re going to be deep into one of the biggest economic upheavels our collective civilization has faced, any job that mostly involves typing on a keyboard is going to be heavily impacted by this if not replaced outright. Not sure how the world will handle that.