My thoughts, ended up being longer than I meant, but here:
Paying attention to the loudest voices, you will think we’ve split into two societal groups: those who use AI and think it’s absolutely perfect and will save humanity (“sheep”), and those who deny it has any uses whatsoever, is morally abhorrent, and is going to end mankind, either through war or through decay (“luddites”).
Most people will be in the middle. We will slowly learn what LLMs are good at doing, and what’s it bad at doing, and it’ll be messy. People will lose their jobs, but then some companies will realize that AI can’t actually replace those people, and some services/products will get dramatically worse/enshittified. Others will begin making a living through the use of AI, some adding great value to society and others just creating slop that a small but big enough fraction of the masses will consume to keep it around. People who are smarter at separating the good from the bad will laugh at both the luddites and the sheep.
One or two AI companies will fail and there will be massive turmoil and fallout for them. But most will either slowly reduce expectations or succeed moderately over time. Generalized AI will turn out to be way harder than some thought, and consciousness a way bigger leap from LLMs than predicted. There will be a loud push to implement safeguards, and it will be mostly ignored by politicians. However, there will be some progress on energy and water concerns, leading to large differences between countries/US states in terms of regulation. AI will turn out to be mostly bad for kids.
There will be several huge successes - a huge medical cure/vaccine, or an amazing technological invention/improvement, probably some kind of multi-disciplinary discovery. The people who drive it to completion will acknowledge it wouldn’t have occurred without AI, but humans were mostly responsible, but the media will claim that AI invented it out of whole cloth. There will also probably be some high-profile failures, like car crashes or critical server outages, maybe even leading to deaths. Luddites will seize upon them as if they’re apocalypses, and sheep will dismiss them as anomalies. The truth will be in-between. Most people’s lives will not change drastically.
My thoughts, ended up being longer than I meant, but here:
Paying attention to the loudest voices, you will think we’ve split into two societal groups: those who use AI and think it’s absolutely perfect and will save humanity (“sheep”), and those who deny it has any uses whatsoever, is morally abhorrent, and is going to end mankind, either through war or through decay (“luddites”).
Most people will be in the middle. We will slowly learn what LLMs are good at doing, and what’s it bad at doing, and it’ll be messy. People will lose their jobs, but then some companies will realize that AI can’t actually replace those people, and some services/products will get dramatically worse/enshittified. Others will begin making a living through the use of AI, some adding great value to society and others just creating slop that a small but big enough fraction of the masses will consume to keep it around. People who are smarter at separating the good from the bad will laugh at both the luddites and the sheep.
One or two AI companies will fail and there will be massive turmoil and fallout for them. But most will either slowly reduce expectations or succeed moderately over time. Generalized AI will turn out to be way harder than some thought, and consciousness a way bigger leap from LLMs than predicted. There will be a loud push to implement safeguards, and it will be mostly ignored by politicians. However, there will be some progress on energy and water concerns, leading to large differences between countries/US states in terms of regulation. AI will turn out to be mostly bad for kids.
There will be several huge successes - a huge medical cure/vaccine, or an amazing technological invention/improvement, probably some kind of multi-disciplinary discovery. The people who drive it to completion will acknowledge it wouldn’t have occurred without AI, but humans were mostly responsible, but the media will claim that AI invented it out of whole cloth. There will also probably be some high-profile failures, like car crashes or critical server outages, maybe even leading to deaths. Luddites will seize upon them as if they’re apocalypses, and sheep will dismiss them as anomalies. The truth will be in-between. Most people’s lives will not change drastically.