Like I kept seeing bets raising on when will USA strike Iran and till 2 days before the strike most of the money was betting on 15 March for the first strike.
When the whole thing failed I was confused about the reason no one reported on this.
A lot of people lost money on this.
But more importantly, this counter the message that is currently being broadcasted everywhere and reported on by several news outlets, which is prediction markets are accurate for predicting events.
I think if there was more reports about prediction markets fails even news organisations themselves will be cautious and will not use the unreliable prediction markets data.
So, why is no one reporting on that?
It’s gambling, this is how they’re supposed to work, why would they report on that.
I haven’t seen anyone reasonably say they should be perfect, they just can sometimes be a better indicator than the other options we have available and can create a situation that makes it slightly more difficult for bias to come into play.