Less than two weeks into the American and Israeli bombardment of Iran, the war is both a success and a failure. Militarily, the campaign has effectively degraded the Islamic Republic’s warmaking capacities. But politically, thus far, it has only strengthened the regime’s cohesion.
President Trump may have hoped the elimination of the Islamic Republic’s longtime supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would produce an Iranian Delcy Rodríguez—a pragmatic insider who would capitulate to American pressure—but it has instead spawned a budding Iranian Kim Jong Un. Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, will succeed his father, making the Islamic Republic a hereditary dictatorship poised to double down on ideology and repression.
Yeah, no shit. Their own intelligence told them this wasn’t going to work.
Prewar US intel assessment found intervention in Iran wasn’t likely to change leadership
The National Intelligence Council’s assessment in February concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in Iran, even if the current leadership was killed, according to the two people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the classified report.